Find out what we think about Liberty vs Toledo in this college football pick ’em.

Liberty vs Toledo picks and predictions

Think back to November 5: Liberty had just defeated Arkansas in an upset in Fayetteville, and the team was on top of the world.

After that, the Flames’ fortunes rapidly deteriorated, as they dropped three games in a row, including humbling upset defeats to UConn (33-36) and New Mexico State (14-49). The Flames’ 0-3 record against the spread over that time resulted in an average cover margin of -29.2.

Hugh Freeze’s departure to Auburn is devastating for the Flames, since he amassed a remarkable 34-15 record during his four years with the team. Jamey Chadwell, a rising star in the coaching ranks, has been named Freeze’s replacement, so the program is in strong hands moving ahead.

The only thing Chadwell accomplished to make Coastal Carolina’s Chanticleers relevant was to lead them to a 31-6 record in his final three seasons there. However, Chadwell will not be coaching in this game; instead, linebackers coach and co-defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge will serve as temporary head coach.

The final makeup of this Liberty squad remains unclear. Alradige has not publicly selected an offensive play caller, and the Flames employed all three quarterbacks (Kaidon Salter, Charlie Brewer, and Johnathan Bennett) in the regular season finale with little success.

Now that quarterback Dequan Finn has played through an injury and appeared healthy in the MAC championship game, Toledo should be close to full strength. The Rockets haven’t suffered many losses due to injuries, opt-outs, or the transfer portals.

The Liberty side of this is a total mystery, so I’ll focus on what we do know: both sides may have trouble moving the ball. Without Freeze, Liberty’s offense would suffer since it currently ranks 94th in EPA per play and has no obvious alternative at quarterback.

This season, Toledo’s defense has been outstanding. They are tenth in the league in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Four members of the Rockets’ defense made the first team and three more made the second.

Having the ball against a Liberty team that is ranked 20th in EPA per play and ninth in success rate will be a challenge for Toledo. The Flames dominate in the trenches, notching the most tackles for loss (109) and placing ninth in line yards and seventh in stuff rate. Allow me to request the Under.

Liberty vs Toledo spread analysis

When comparing statistics from both offense and defense, Toledo clearly stands out as the victor. Comparing offensive and defensive EPA per play, the Rockets rank higher than the Flames in both categories (ninth to 20th).

The teams’ schedules haven’t been that different either, given they’re both in the same division (Group of Five). According to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, Toledo (76th in SOS) has a substantially tougher schedule than Liberty (49th in SOS) (118th in SOS).

Toledo is a worthy favorite to win the Boca Raton Bowl for all of these reasons. Even though the Rockets opened at -1.5, the line has moved to -5, and -4.5 is still available at certain books.

For bettors, this season has been a loss for both teams. Although Liberty’s record is 5-7 ATS, Toledo’s 5-8 ATS record is worse. All three of Liberty’s recent bowl victories occurred when Freeze was in charge.

I’m not a big fan of betting on MAC teams during bowl season since the MAC is a terrible conference. Given that Liberty has lost its head coach, Toledo appears to be the superior club on paper.

The offensive struggles of late for the Flames have met a formidable opponent in a Toledo defense that allows only 4.7 yards per play. For this bettor, it’s either a favorite or a pass.

Liberty vs Toledo Over/Under analysis

Both the Over and Under have trends in their favor. Liberty’s Under record is 4-1 in their previous five games overall (non-conference) and 8-3 in their past 11 games (against teams with winning records). Against the MAC champions, each of these tendencies will be at play. The Under is 4-1 in Toledo’s past five games.

On defense, Toledo excels in nearly every category. The Houston Rockets are sixth in the league in terms of the percentage of standard downs in which they are successful against the opposing offense. Once Liberty is put in passing situations, it may struggle against a defense that ranks fifth in passing downs EPA and tenth in passing downs success rate.

Given that the Rockets rank ninth in Rushing Success rate against, it may be prudent to temper your expectations for Liberty’s running game.

Liberty is eighth in the league in standard downs success rate, so the Rockets will have a tough time keeping the ball moving down the field. The Flames are eighth in the country in terms of total disruption they cause to opposing attacks, thanks in large part to the play of their powerful front seven.

Boca Raton Bowl Odds and Predictions for Liberty vs Toledo

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After winning their conference for the first time in school history, Toledo will have a chance to capitalize in a bowl game. The following is a betting preview for the Boca Raton Bowl, wherein we dissect the Rockets and their defense.

The Boca Raton Bowl offers a top-tier clash between two non-Power Five teams, the Toledo Rockets (8-5) and the Liberty Flames (8-4).

The University of Toledo was victorious in the Mid-American Conference, bringing home the school’s first conference title since 2017. It would be great if Jason Candle and company could add one more victory to an already remarkable season.

Liberty was once considered one of the most underrated teams in the country, but the Flames struggled down the stretch and then saw coach Hugh Freeze leave for Auburn. OKBET Football Betting: Have any hope that they’ll be able to get back on track?